Pair #5877

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-KVIL

Valero Texas Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2288

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-KVIL

Valero Texas Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6052

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:16:21Z

Reasoning: Top 5 necessarily implies top 20 (if you're in the top 5, you're also in the top 20). Top 20 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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