Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-JVEG
Valero Texas Open: Will Jhonattan Vegas finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Jhonattan Vegas
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 430
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jhonattan Vegas finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-VATO26-JVEG
Valero Texas Open: Will Jhonattan Vegas finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jhonattan Vegas
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3301
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jhonattan Vegas finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:16:21Z
Reasoning: A top 10 Round 1 finish does not guarantee a top 5 tournament finish, and a top 5 tournament finish does not require a top 10 Round 1 performance. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A