Pair #587

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Michael Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3464

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Kim finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MKIM

Will Michael Kim win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Michael Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 983889

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Kim wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:03:45Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar has no logical bearing on winning the Masters, and winning the Masters does not imply a top 20 at the Valspar. These are independent events at different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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