Pair #5869

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-JVEG

Valero Texas Open: Will Jhonattan Vegas finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Jhonattan Vegas
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 430

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jhonattan Vegas finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JVEG

Valero Texas Open: Will Jhonattan Vegas finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jhonattan Vegas
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1660

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jhonattan Vegas finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:16:01Z

Reasoning: Final top 20 finish and Round 1 top 10 are independent outcomes. Neither logically necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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