Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-JVEG
Valero Texas Open: Will Jhonattan Vegas finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Jhonattan Vegas
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 430
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jhonattan Vegas finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JVEG
Valero Texas Open: Will Jhonattan Vegas finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jhonattan Vegas
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1660
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jhonattan Vegas finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:16:01Z
Reasoning: Final top 20 finish and Round 1 top 10 are independent outcomes. Neither logically necessitates the other.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A