Pair #5844

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 48609

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1291

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:15:27Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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