Pair #584

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TKIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 37189

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

Rules

If Tom Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-TKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7247

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:03:45Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 has no logical bearing on finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship, which is a separate non-major tournament. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -45.01% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4200
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -49.30% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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