Pair #5836

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-ASCH

Valero Texas Open: Will Adam Schenk finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Adam Schenk
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 658

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Schenk finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-ASCH

Valero Texas Open: Will Adam Schenk finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Schenk
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 940

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Schenk finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:15:27Z

Reasoning: If Schenk finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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