Pair #5821

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-JPAR

Will John Parry lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: John Parry
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 93999

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If John Parry is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JPAR

Valero Texas Open: Will John Parry finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: John Parry
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6879

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If John Parry finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:14:53Z

Reasoning: A top 20 final finish does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 final finish. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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