Pair #5818

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-WMOU

Valero Texas Open: Will William Mouw finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1179

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If William Mouw finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-WMOU

Valero Texas Open: Will William Mouw finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3231

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If William Mouw finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:14:53Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10. The reverse does not hold — positions 6-10 satisfy top 10 but not top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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