Pair #5816

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-WMOU

Valero Texas Open: Will William Mouw finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3231

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If William Mouw finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-WMOU

Valero Texas Open: Will William Mouw finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4470

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If William Mouw finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:14:53Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — positions 11-20 satisfy top 20 but not top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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