Pair #5813

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-TMOO

Valero Texas Open: Will Taylor Moore finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Taylor Moore
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 627

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Taylor Moore finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TMOO

Valero Texas Open: Will Taylor Moore finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Taylor Moore
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 542

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Taylor Moore finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:14:53Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — a top 20 finish could be positions 11-20, which would not satisfy top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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