Pair #581

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-TKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7247

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-TKIM

Will Tom Kim win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 425844

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:03:45Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical bearing on finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship. These are independent events at different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.6210
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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