Pair #5804

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-KMIT

Valero Texas Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12891

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-KMIT

Valero Texas Open: Will Keith Mitchell make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1634

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:14:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in the tournament requires having made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut doesn't guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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