Pair #5801

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-KMIT

Valero Texas Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 601

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-KMIT

Will Keith Mitchell win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 125232

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:14:36Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 (a player can start poorly and come back), and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not mean winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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