Pair #5800

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-MMEI

Will Mac Meissner lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17381

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mac Meissner is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-MMEI

Valero Texas Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1344

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:14:36Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate finishing top 5 overall (could fade), and finishing top 5 overall does not necessitate having led after Round 1 (could start slow and finish strong).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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