Pair #58

Antecedent (implies)

KXMOMEN-26-FON

Will Joao Fonseca win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 12452

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Joao Fonseca wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR17MARFON-FON

Will Joao Fonseca win the Marozsan vs Fonseca : Round Of 128 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2026-03-17T18:00:00Z
Volume: 7462

YES ask: 0.6900
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.7200

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Rules

If Joao Fonseca wins the Marozsan vs Fonseca professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-17T08:00:29Z

Reasoning: To win the ATP Miami Open, Fonseca must win every match including the Round of 128 match against Marozsan. Winning the tournament logically necessitates winning that specific match. However, winning that match does not imply winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6900
Days to maturity: 12
Hurdle yield: 4.25%
Excess yield: -104.25% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T08:35:42Z

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