Pair #5795

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 563

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew McCarty finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MMCC

Will Matthew McCarty win the The Masters?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 823286

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew McCarty wins the The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:14:13Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valero Texas Open and winning The Masters are independent events. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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