Pair #5781

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-CKIR

Valero Texas Open: Will Chris Kirk finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Chris Kirk
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1562

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Chris Kirk finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-CKIR

Valero Texas Open: Will Chris Kirk finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chris Kirk
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4471

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.7900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Chris Kirk finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:13:57Z

Reasoning: If Kirk finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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