Pair #578

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-TKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6996

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-TKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7247

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:03:45Z

Reasoning: If Tom Kim finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 10 as well. The reverse does not hold — a top 10 finish could be positions 6-10, which would not satisfy top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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