Pair #577

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TKIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 37189

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-TKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6996

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:03:45Z

Reasoning: A top 5 finish at the Valspar Championship (a non-major) does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply a top 5 at the Valspar. These are entirely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -21.21% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -25.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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