Pair #5768

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-CHOF

Valero Texas Open: Will Charley Hoffman finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Charley Hoffman
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1917

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Charley Hoffman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-CHOF

Valero Texas Open: Will Charley Hoffman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Charley Hoffman
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 976

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Charley Hoffman has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:13:39Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not imply a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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