Pair #5753

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JHIG

Valero Texas Open: Will Joe Highsmith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Joe Highsmith
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 810

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joe Highsmith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-JHIG

Valero Texas Open: Will Joe Highsmith make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Joe Highsmith
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 648

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joe Highsmith has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:13:22Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in the tournament requires making the cut — you cannot finish in the top 20 overall without having survived the cut. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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