Pair #5698

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-BHOR

Valero Texas Open: Will Billy Horschel finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3234

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Horschel finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-BHOR

Valero Texas Open: Will Billy Horschel make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4423

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Horschel has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:11:57Z

Reasoning: Finishing in the top 20 of a tournament requires having made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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