Pair #5696

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-BHOR

Valero Texas Open: Will Billy Horschel finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 976

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Horschel finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-BHOR

Valero Texas Open: Will Billy Horschel finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3234

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Horschel finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:11:57Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — finishing between 11th and 20th satisfies top 20 but not top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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