Pair #5691

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMASTERS-26-MTHO

Michael Thorbjornsen to compete in The Masters in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 27509

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-MTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10483

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:11:16Z

Reasoning: Competing in The Masters does not require finishing top 10 at the Valero Texas Open, and finishing top 10 at the Valero does not guarantee a Masters invitation. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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