Pair #569

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-TKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7247

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-TKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3791

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:03:27Z

Reasoning: If Tom Kim finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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