Pair #5689

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 404791

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMASTERS-26-MTHO

Michael Thorbjornsen to compete in The Masters in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 27509

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:11:16Z

Reasoning: The Valero Texas Open winner receives an invitation to The Masters as part of the standard PGA Tour qualifying criteria for The Masters. Therefore winning the Valero Texas Open logically necessitates competing in The Masters 2026. The reverse does not hold — Thorbjornsen could qualify for The Masters via other means without winning the Valero.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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