Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOUR-VATO26-MTHO
Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the Valero Texas Open?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 404791
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Michael Thorbjornsen wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMASTERS-26-MTHO
Michael Thorbjornsen to compete in The Masters in 2026?
Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 27509
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Michael Thorbjornsen competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:11:16Z
Reasoning: The Valero Texas Open winner receives an invitation to The Masters as part of the standard PGA Tour qualifying criteria for The Masters. Therefore winning the Valero Texas Open logically necessitates competing in The Masters 2026. The reverse does not hold — Thorbjornsen could qualify for The Masters via other means without winning the Valero.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A