Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RHIS
Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 393
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-VATO26-RHIS
Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22335
YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:11:16Z
Reasoning: Round 1 top 10 performance does not logically necessitate a top 5 overall finish, and a top 5 overall finish does not require being top 10 after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.5700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A