Pair #5683

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-RHIS

Will Ryo Hisatsune lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 103437

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryo Hisatsune is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RHIS

Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 393

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:11:16Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 means having the lowest score, which places the player at the top of the leaderboard, thus necessarily in the top 10 after Round 1. The reverse does not hold — being top 10 after Round 1 does not require being the outright leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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