Pair #568

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TKIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 37189

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

Rules

If Tom Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-TKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3791

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:03:27Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major, so finishing top 20 there has no logical connection to winning a major. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -60.52% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.80% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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