Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RHIS
Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 393
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-VATO26-RHIS
Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13563
YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.7500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:10:54Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 overall finish. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.7500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A