Pair #5678

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RHIS

Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 393

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-RHIS

Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32540

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1600
Last: 0.8900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:10:54Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 overall finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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