Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RHIS
Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 393
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-VATO26-RHIS
Will Ryo Hisatsune win the Valero Texas Open?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1474307
YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryo Hisatsune wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:10:54Z
Reasoning: Winning the Valero Texas Open does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 (a player could be outside the top 10 after Round 1 and still win), and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee winning. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A