Pair #5651

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-LFER

Will Leylah Fernandez win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Leylah Fernandez
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 596

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Leylah Fernandez wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26APR02FERSHN-FER

Will Leylah Fernandez win the Fernandez vs Shnaider : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Leylah Fernandez
Expiration: 2026-04-02T18:00:00Z
Volume: 576

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Leylah Fernandez wins the Fernandez vs Shnaider professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Charleston Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:10:21Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning the Charleston R16 match (different tournament). Winning the Charleston R16 does not imply winning a Grand Slam. No logical connection.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -38.52% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -42.80% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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