Pair #5650

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26APR02HIJTIA-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the Hijikata vs Tiafoe : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-04-02T20:00:00Z
Volume: 9545

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.7800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins the Hijikata vs Tiafoe professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXFOMEN-26-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1214820

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:10:21Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open does not require winning the Houston R16 match (separate tournament). Winning the Houston R16 match does not imply winning the French Open. No logical connection.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.2700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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