Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26APR02HIJTIA-TIA
Will Frances Tiafoe win the Hijikata vs Tiafoe : Round Of 16 match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-04-02T20:00:00Z
Volume: 9545
YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.7800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Frances Tiafoe wins the Hijikata vs Tiafoe professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXFOMEN-26-TIA
Will Frances Tiafoe win the French Open?
Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1214820
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Frances Tiafoe wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:10:21Z
Reasoning: Winning the French Open does not require winning the Houston R16 match (separate tournament). Winning the Houston R16 match does not imply winning the French Open. No logical connection.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.2700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A