Pair #5649

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-FTIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 556

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR02HIJTIA-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the Hijikata vs Tiafoe : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-04-02T20:00:00Z
Volume: 9545

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.7800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins the Hijikata vs Tiafoe professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:10:21Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning the Houston R16 match (different tournament entirely). Winning the Houston R16 match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. No logical connection.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -63.48% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -67.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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