Pair #5646

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-MHOM

Valero Texas Open: Will Max Homa make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5642

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-MHOM

Valero Texas Open: Will Max Homa finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 499

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:10:21Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (could collapse in R2). Making the cut does not require a top-5 Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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