Pair #5644

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-MHOM

Valero Texas Open: Will Max Homa make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5642

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-MHOM

Will Max Homa lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 203397

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:10:21Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could lead R1 but play poorly in R2 and miss the cut). Making the cut does not require leading after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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