Pair #5640

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-MHOM

Valero Texas Open: Will Max Homa finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 499

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Homa finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-MHOM

Valero Texas Open: Will Max Homa finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 426

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Homa finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:10:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 necessarily means finishing top 10 in Round 1 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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