Pair #5639

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-MHOM

Will Max Homa lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 203397

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-MHOM

Valero Texas Open: Will Max Homa finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 426

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:10:03Z

Reasoning: If Homa leads after Round 1, he is by definition in the top 1 (and thus top 10) after Round 1. The reverse does not hold — being top 10 in Round 1 does not mean he is the outright leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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