Pair #5633

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MHOM

Valero Texas Open: Will Max Homa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7194

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-MHOM

Valero Texas Open: Will Max Homa make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5642

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:10:03Z

Reasoning: To finish top 20 in the overall tournament, a player must have made the cut. You cannot finish in the top 20 without having survived the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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