Pair #5631

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-MHOM

Valero Texas Open: Will Max Homa finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 426

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Homa finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MHOM

Valero Texas Open: Will Max Homa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7194

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Homa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:09:43Z

Reasoning: Final tournament finish (top 20) and Round 1 finish (top 10) are independent: a player can finish top 20 overall without being top 10 after R1, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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