Pair #562

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-SIM

Valspar Championship: Will Sungjae Im make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7815

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-SIM

Valspar Championship: Will Sungjae Im finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15102

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0300
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:03:11Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish — a player can make the cut and finish outside the top 10. Top 10 does imply making the cut, but that direction is not an option here since top 10 finishing necessarily means the cut was made. Wait — checking: if top 10 resolves YES, does make the cut resolve YES? Yes, finishing top 10 requires having made the cut. So KXPGATOP10-VAC26-SIM implies KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-SIM.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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