Pair #5605

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-JSPA

Valero Texas Open: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2310

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JSPA

Valero Texas Open: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5847

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:09:06Z

Reasoning: If Spaun finishes top 10, he necessarily also finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue