Pair #5601

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2321

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-JSPA

Valero Texas Open: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2310

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:09:06Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and finishing top 10 in the Valero Texas Open are independent events. The Valero Texas Open is not a major, and winning a major does not require a top 10 at Valero, nor vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -43.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -47.41% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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