Pair #56

Antecedent (implies)

KXFOMEN-26-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 11483

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Frances Tiafoe wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXMOMEN-26-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 220

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Frances Tiafoe wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-17T08:00:29Z

Reasoning: Winning the ATP Miami Open and winning the French Open are two completely separate tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -4.18% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 85
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -8.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:53:38Z

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