Pair #5595

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WZAL

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9096

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

Rules

If Will Zalatoris wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-WZAL

Valero Texas Open: Will Will Zalatoris finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 19336

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Will Zalatoris finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:08:48Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and finishing top 20 at the Valero Texas Open are independent events. The Valero Texas Open is not a major, so neither event implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -7.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -12.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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