Pair #559

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SJIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1107

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Sungjae Im wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-SIM

Will Sungjae Im win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2549493

YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:03:11Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major. Winning it does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply winning the Valspar.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -45.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4300
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -49.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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