Pair #5587

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2391248

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0020

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Rules

If Cameron Smith wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10169

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:08:48Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters is winning one of the four majors, so it necessarily implies winning a major in 2026. The reverse does not hold — Cameron Smith could win a different major without winning the Masters.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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