Pair #5586

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-MPEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Marco Penge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 262

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 192565

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:08:48Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in Round 2), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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